Observer mode win% calculation


#1

How is the win chance % viewable while spectating calculated? It’s difficult to interpret while casting if I don’t actually know what variables are involved, error in the calculation, etc.etc.


#2

The less health/armor the monster has, the less the win percentage is for monster.

As for hunters, if a monster gets a down, the win percentage increases for monster.


#3

Changed the category, as it a question about spectating


#4

Right, but is it an arbitrary calculation or derived from historical data of the specific monster/hunters on a given map etc. etc.


#5

Thanks Torvald!


#6

Anytime you need me.


#7

Arbitrary. It’s based upon the events of the match at hand. If the Monster loses HP or has little armor odds are not in his favor but if the Hunters have a lot of strikes and minimal Monster damage then odds are in the Monster’s favor.


#8

There are many factors to how the system works. Some mains ones are: (Everything being current) Monster Health, Monster armor, strikes on hunters, hunters dead, which role is dead, buffs, perks on hunters, abilities available.

Yeah, lots.


#9

Right, but what’s the actual equation, and how accurate has it been historically at different match timings? Is it actually a good predictor, with a detected amount of error?


#10

I don’t think anyone knows the exact equation but it calculates the result of a match with the amount of health a monster has, their stage, and the number of strikes. Historically, it’s never been accurate unless the monster had extremely low health and there were no strikes on the hunters. Even in situations like that any side can easily flip the the way the game is going and win despite their circumstances. It’s not a good judge of who’s actually going to win so don’t be discouraged if your chances of winning seem low.


#11

So if it has been historically inaccurate, what is the actual equation and how can it be improved? Given the lack of private servers, it may be possible to get some of the metadata and do some regression analysis for the variables included, and weight them more appropriately based on how well they’ve predicted the match at different levels of play. Either way, without knowing how the equation actually works, it’s impossible to keep it in proper context while casting.