Fun with Numbers


#1

So my inner math nerd decided to go on a rampage today, and I thought I’d share the collateral damage with the community.

I remember a while back, @Plaff made a post tallying up the possible hunter monster combinations possible in the game. The result was around 3000 (2916 to be exact). This got me thinking about other statistics, and here are the results.

What we know:
There are 12 hunters, consisting of 3 characters from 4 classes.
There are 3 monsters, and a 4th as future DLC.
There are around 12 maps on release
Each monster and hunter has 9 available perks
Each monster has 4 skills that can be leveled 3 times.
Each monster has three stages, each of which can allocate 3 skill points.
We know of 1 game mode.

So what does this all mean. Lets start with what has been said:
There are 81 possible hunter teams in terms of characters on a team
With 3 monsters to fight, this is 2,916 scenarios.

We knew that though. There is a trick here though. For every character, you will play differently depending on which perk you take.
For hunters this means:
For hunters there are 6,561 different combinations of perks that can be used across your team
Therefore there are 531,441 different play-styles for each hunter in a team of hunters
This means there are 6,377,292 ways to play as a hunter

For monsters the skills you level up matter a lot, not only which ones but at what stage. This means:
There are 20 possible ways for a monster to start a match with skills alone. 180 factoring in perks.
Without perks, that means at stage 3, the monster has 800 possible paths each with different tactical value.
Including perks, this escalates to 7,200 possible monster builds, again each with unique potential.
With 3 monsters, that is 21,600 builds at release and 28,800 with the first DLC monster.

Remember, that is in a vacuum. If you include maps and hunter teams you can fight the total number of unique hunting scenarios is 137,749,507,200 on release. In case that a number that big is hard to look at, that is about 137 billion cases. :markov:

With the first DLC monster, this number will increase to 183,666,009,600 (183 billion scenarios) if you get it, and 183,665,923,200 (still 183 billion scenarios) if you don’t. (that’s only 86,400 scenarios you lose out of 183,665,923,200. By significant figures, that is practically negligible - hopefully this will make the DLC nay-Sayers feel a little more reassured)

Pretty cool eh? It doesn’t even include the effect of skill progression, additional modes, and all other content we are not aware of yet, which will make the number increase wildly. Also remember that each scenario will unfold differently depending on who is at the controls of each character.

Lets go a little deeper, shall we? How about for the Big Alpha?

Lets assume we have the 3 maps we’ve seen plus the 2 monsters and 8 hunters we know of.
If this is true then:
there will be 4800 monster builds to try
there will be 54 possible hunter teams, and 354294 possible hunter builds
That means that there will be a total of 1,700,611,200 scenarios to play in the alpha.
If each match takes 15 minutes, it would take 48,533 years to try them all (the full release would take 3,931,207 years to experience in full)

So there is my crazy number rampage. I hope you enjoyed it!

EDIT: updated knowing there will be 9 perks across monsters and hunters


How many combinations are there?
#2

Wow
(ten char)


#3

Effort verified.


#4

Good on ya


#5

Not only such numbers, but you need to play the game approximately 9 hours per hunter/monster to attain the next one.


#6

Not to mention the fact that we only know of 4 confirmed perks for the hunters (faster jetpack recharge is one Macman mentioned as a personal fav on trapper) plus that is just games of Hunt. Great numbers


#7

And the fact that perks can be upgraded further by playing the game


#8

Btw, Hunters ultimately have nine character perks to choose from. Monsters also have nine character perks to choose from. I believe they are all available in the Big Alpha, but they must be earned through XP and can be leveled up (actually you do start with one available, so you need to earn eight of them.)


Evolve's Progression System Revealed
#9

Finally !.. Finally !! The perk which allows you to taunt !..
Haaa, I knew Big Alpha would reveal good stuff !..

(What do you mean “You dream” ?.. I don’t ! >< )


#10

Very interesting stuff, Takran, well done! :smiley:


#11

Unless my math is wrong (which is very possible) if 832,440 people play the big alpha and all choose a different variation of the game and playing for all but 12 hours through the weekend (sleep and food) we could see every variation. I know I’ll be pulling my weight…will you?


#12

How do you manage to simply calcul (or even visualize) the monster skill path ?..

Somehow, it interests me really…


#13

My guess: 4 possibilities for your first point, times four for your second and four more for your third -
So Stage 1:
4x4x4
Stage 2:
x4x4x4
Stage 3:
x4x4x4

262,144


#14

I thought that too but I can’t find 20 skill possibilities of Stage 1 monster with this reasoning…
Though if you write them all, there are indeed 20 possibilities…


#15

If you calculate it like @MacMan, that is 4 x 4 x 4 the the order in which the three points are spent matter, but it makes no difference if you put your first point into flame breath and your secound in leap or you do it the other way round. You still get the same combination, that is 1 point in flame breath and one in leap. (However, the order of points does matter if you look at them over different stages: 1 point in flame breath on stage 1 and 1 point in leap in stage 2 is not the same if you change the order).

Therfore the calculation must be:

n+k-1 over k (which means the Binomial coefficient)
with n=4 the number of abilities and k=3 the number of aviable points.

This means we just have to calculate ((3+4-1)!) / ((3+4-1-3)! * 3!) which equals to 20.

Sorry to get all mathematical on you :smiley:


#16

I’m not going to check any math because I hate math, so I’ll assume all the numbers are correct.

Which means, this is going to be awesome. So much to learn!


#17

I think it’s a fair point to say that there will be infinite possibilities in the game considering the things math cannot calculate like teamwork, skill, luck, experience, etc. Even if you get the exact same match, everyone being the same hunters/monster and using the same skills, your experiences will change the game.

Evolve - Endless possibility. Endless fun.


#18

Brain exploded


#19

I actually did it by hand and found a pattern. so each monster has 4 abilities and 3 points to spread through them. At stage 1 I found:

111,112,113,114,122,123,124,133,134,144,222,223,224,233,234,244,333,334,344,444

That is 20 options at stage 1. The reason direct multiplication doesn’t work is because data points like 122 and 221 are the same in terms of skill allocation. I repeated the process for the first value:

if the monster has a skill distribution of 111 at stage 1, they can no longer use a point in 1, so distribution becomes
222,223,224,233,234,244,333,334,344,444

so at stage 2, each of the stage 1 options have 10 options on how to evolve.

I repeated for stage 3. assuming points in 111 and 222 options are
333,334,344,444

only 4. Therefore monster build paths are 4x20x10 = 800

@Shinyman is a boss for using a formula. I should have, but I will shamefully admit I got really bored in a review lecture and was doing it the long way on the side to keep myself awake.

Edit: @MacMan 9 perks eh? I’ll update the top post!


#20

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/45733665.jpg