ESL Major League Group Stage Stats and Predictions

#1

Time for some interesting stats now that we know the final number of teams signed up.

For those unaware, the Major is set up as a group stage League. The teams have been split up into 4 groups, with 3 groups of 6 and 1 group of 7. For the groups of 6, there is a 33.3% recurring to make it to the play-offs, as the top two teams from each group will move forward. For the group of 7, this chance is reduced to 28.5% chance to make it to play-offs.

The groups have actually been posted, and I hadn’t actually noticed until writing this post, so I’m gonna break down the groups right now and give some early predictions.

Group A

Ninja Penguins
SiTH
myKPV
CLT
Flying Vikings
Prevalence.

So, this group is probably the hardest group I can see right now. Almost all the teams have very high competitive experience, including of course the 8 time winner of the Go4Evolve ESL cups, Ninja Penguins. The only team that have had no competitive play I can think of is Flying Vikings, so I can’t vouch for their ability. They may perform well, but they may lack experience that they need to win. Right now, unless other teams start to bring out something special, it can be assumed that Ninja Penguins will take one of the two playoff spots. That leaves the last spot up for grabs by 5 teams. Statistically, that give the teams a 20% chance of making playoffs down from 33.3% from just being in a 6 man group. To put it into better terms, Teams in this group would have a better chance playing in Group D, the 7 man group, than playing in Group A unless they can take down NjP. The 2nd spot will be highly contested, with the new myKPV team coming in with some strong members, SiTH rejoining the scene with some old and new blood and the sister teams of CLT and Prevalence playing against each other for that spot. This group is in my opinion the most exciting to watch, and seeing who will break away from the pack to join NjP will be interesting. Throw a new team in the mix as well as things are going to get Pretty insane.

Group B

PENTA
myKPV.nDg
Outrider
B U C K E T B O Y S
Laurie Ann
Ev1337

Group B is kind of like the unknowns of the scene, the underdogs and new teams are bunched up well in here, alongside some very strong competition. Of course, at the top of the group is PENTA. They have always been big contenders, however have not shown off anything new or even played in ESL or online for the past month. This makes them extremely dangerous for the teams, as they are most likely holding onto some new strategies that will be hard to counter without preparation. However, it also puts them at a disadvantage. Lack of practice versus any Monsters bar their own leaves them at a distinct disadvantage against teams who have had practice versus most of the teams. The current myKPV.nDg have been performing well recently, and look to take the thunder away from PENTA in this group. PENTA and myKPV.nDg will be competing hard for the top playoff spot, but nDg are going to have to learn to adjust to new strategies better, a weakness we saw distinctly in last weeks Go4Evolve with their play versus Epex’s MazzelGG on Wraith. With the rest of the teams having no names I can recognise, bar Ev1337’s Derebirth and Barzul and 1 loss versus Epex a couple of weeks ago, this group is going to have a lot of unknown variables going on. Will PENTA perform? Can nDg take them down or will they take the 2nd spot? Will nDg or PENTA even take a spot or will a new, unknown team claim their chance at glory? Too many questions, the first week will answer a lot hopefully.

Group C

TPA
EYES ON U
EvolveHype
Monster Man GAMING
The Xenomorphs
Team Thrown Together

This is a great group to watch, with some great potential. Of course, the first team I just have to mention is EvolveHype. Yes, this is the Xbox team, it’s hard to remember but just remember HYPE! is the PC team and your all set. So, with the current World Champions now playing in the first major PC event, they are looking to hold their position as the Worlds best. However, their strategy really has to come far from what I had seen at the Proving Grounds, as their strategy showed a lot of potential but needed some hard work and polishing to really shine amongst the top teams on PC right now. Next to that, the two other major teams in this group, TPA and EYES ON U. TPA have been showing some great potential, especially with their Monster player right now, Bugzy having come from Epex. Add to that the Monster player for EYES ON U being the well-respected Cyril, this bracket is a Monster. It is going to be up to Hunter teams to make a break for their teams and bring themselves some points going up against these very skilled Monsters. However, with the EYES ON U Hunter team having lost members very recently, losing their captain in B1nge as well, the performance of this team is going to be one to watch. They have made replacements with some very good players, including EAX and Gakillerz, as well as adding Ludersaek to the roster. How this team moves and gels is going to be interesting to watch. As for the other teams, Xenomorphs have shown some potential but are going to have to bring their A game to shine. Monster Man GAMING are an odd one, having signed up and played multiple times, but mostly being knocked out in the first game having made so many replacements the team is hard to comment on. And of course, to make things more interesting, the new contender coming into the scene in this group is TTT, having no previous experience or known players.

Group D

Epex Apocalypse
HYPE!
Shear Luck
Dill Dozers
The Lazarus Men
Tyrant
Personal Shield OP

This is of course, the previously mentioned 7 team Group. Statistically, there is a 28.5% chance for teams to make it to playoffs in this group, making it statistically hardest. However, with the group being made mostly of newer teams, this stat is a bit misleading. Epex and HYPE! are going to be fighting for the top spot, being the most experienced teams here. However, with the strength of Epex’s new Monster player, MazzelGG (The man who is cursed to never have a Monster in the dome turned to use his curse as a blessing, dodging domes as Monster with seeming ease.) they are looking poised to take HYPE! down and take the top spot. HYPE! are going to have to learn to deal with the Wraith play that looked so dangerous in the last ESL Go4Evolve weekend. At first glance, the newer teams may not look like a threat, but at a closer look it is pretty scary. Dill Dozers performed extremely well for a new team last weekend, the Lazarus Men showed some amazing new ideas and theory, but lacked execution to pull it off. Add to that Team Tyrant with the forums very own Coach, @MaddCow and the resurrection of Girth-Zilla into his new team, Personal-Shield OP with experienced players DatNewt and UnicornUdders. While HYPE! and Epex might look to fight for the top spot, I would not be surprised if any of them did not underestimated the other teams and lose the second playoff spot to any of these newer teams in Group D. (Also, a cool stat like with Group A. Assuming Epex or HYPE! will take the top spot, the chance of making playoffs is a 16.6% chance.)

Holy Moly, I’m even more excited for Majors than before! Now that I know how crazy these groups are I CANNOT WAIT. :open_mouth:

4 Likes
#2

Tatl Essay… Holy balls.

From everything i’ve been told, its the Top 4 from each group stage goes from the round robin to a single elimination tournament to decide who goes to the finals. ESL page hasnt been updated,

  1. What is the ESL Evolve Major League?
    The ESL Evolve Major League features a complete group stage (Europe + NA only), in which teams earn points towards qualifying for the playoff games. The top 2 teams from each group will advance to the playoffs in August. From the Semifinal on, the Players will be flown to Poland to attend the Offline event in our brand new polish studios.

Hopefully we’ll get a clarification on this…

However, here’s my list:
Group A:
Ninja Penguins
CLT
myKPV
SiTH

Group B:
myKPV.NDG
Penta
BucketBoys

Final Slot is a toss up

Group C:
TPA
Eyes on You
EvolveHype
XenoMorphs

Group D:
Epex
Hype!
Dill Dozers
Lazarus men

Btw, there was just a team added to Group D a few minutes ago.
Team Evolve (which has members of the ESL admin staff).

1 Like
#3

The legends of my next Essay were true. And it’s beautiful. My Baby.

http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view7/4671937/dear-god-it-s-beautiful-o-s.gif

#4

That’s the part I was never quite sure of. I was going off the premise it was always the Top 2 teams, as first stated. If this is changed and announced anywhere, please make sure to say so with a source and reference so that I can adjust my predictions and the statistics for each group in making it out of Group Stage.

As far as predictions go for the Group Stages, if it is top 4, that is how I probably see it going also, apart from Group D. I would actually say Group D would go as such:
Epex
HYPE!
Dill Dozers
Personal Shield OP (Possibly team Tyrant)

As for the new team in Group D, it is possibly just to allow ESL access to some stuff quickly. I would be surprised if this was actually a team, as not only would it not have been put in Group D, but Group A-C, but also as far as I am aware ESL Staff are not allowed to compete in ESL competitions they are a part of.

#5

w/e if all NjP travel they will probably play in finals against Penta.Unless the balance patch hits and the meta changes a lot.But with the current standards i don’t see anyone beating NjP(Been a while since i saw Penta playing)

Oh well its been a bit of time since i stopped so i dunno all this new teams.

Just hope Cyril made a worthy team that actually plays the game and practices.Then i can see em winning as well.

As for the group winners?

1.NjP
2.Penta
3.Prolly EoU since Cyril can carry games alone
4.Epex