Analysis of the Infographic


#1

Alright, so let’s get started on what information we have.

There were 2 monsters in the Alpha.
Kraken: 70% win ratio
Goliath: ??% win ratio

That was the alpha though, so it isn’t that important, let us get to the Beta results.

There were 3 monsters in the Beta
Wraith: 71.1% win ratio
Kraken: 52% win ratio
Goliath: ??% win ratio
Overall monster win ratio: 48.5%

Overall, these numbers look balanced… until you look at the missing information. We didn’t receive any data on the Goliath, however we can figure it out because we have all the other numbers.

71.1% + 52% + ??% = 48.5%

??% = 22.4%

Goliath won 22.4% of the time for the monsters to have a win ratio of 48.5%.

That means that Goliath lost an astounding 77.6% of all games played.

Since we figured out Goliath’s win ratio, we can pull out the overpowered monster from the equation.

The win ratio of not including Wraith:

52% + 22.4% = 37.2%

If the Wraith wasn’t released during the Beta, the monsters would have had a 37.2% chance of winning the game. Turtle Rock didn’t include win ratio of Goliath because it was really low, and they wanted the Beta to look balance. But when you realize that a monster was so strong, it greatly skewed the data into a balanced form, you can see that it is indeed not balanced. Two outliers don’t make a game balanced.

Acceptable ranges of victories to defeat is between 60% - 40%
Great ranges of victories to defeats is between 55.5% - 45.5%
Perfect ranges of victories to defeats is between 52% - 48%

With Wraith at a 71.1% win ratio, and Kraken at 52% win ratio, you know that Goliath had to have a terrible win to lose ratio to balance the win to loss ratio of the monsters to 48.5%

Also, you have to realize that this data is all weighted. My calculations are just on the numbers alone, and when you realize that Goliath had a lot more games played under him versus Wraith and Kraken, his percentage isn’t as low… but it is still a major problem.

If we say that Goliath was played 50% of the time (He is the only unlockable if you haven’t pre-ordered the game or unlocked the Kraken yet, meaning you have to play him), he would have lost a majority of the time anyways.

It could be possible that he was within the 40th percentile, but chances are he was likely below it, but not near the 22.4%. If I had the exact amount of games played under each monster, I can easily figure out what Goliath’s true win to loss ratio was, but I do know that he was exceptionally weak, and because of Wraith’s OVERPOWERED win ratio, you know that Goliath had a terrible win ratio.

What I am curious about is how they plan on buffing up Goliath to make him more viable, because he is nowhere near a perfect win ratio, let alone a great win ratio, but probably not even an acceptable range.

If Turtle Rock could tell us (Or just me) the win ratio of the Goliath, I can do better math and figure out patterns that affects the game, for the better or for the worse. Yes, it being Assymetrical gaming isn’t fair, but it has to be as balanced as possible, and from the data recovered from the beta, it isn’t quite there yet.


#2

The reason for Goliath having a much lower win ratio is because all new players use him by default. The people who played Kraken/Wraith generally had to unlock them in order to use them. That means they are better monsters. I’m sure the data they filter out for games >5 mins would make the results more even. Most ‘new’ Goliaths tend to be caught at stage 1 and die in the first dome.


#3

Yeah, it’s probably because of that. I’d like to see the level 15+ win ratio, then we can judge better.


#4

I think @MacMan posted it in another thread already. Once I get home, I’ll dig up the link.

…providing it exists, of course.

EDIT: Yep, found it. The monsters were winning slightly more, but this wasn’t the final report from the entire Beta iirc, and it was said to jump around a bit.


#5

Agreed, I didn’t quite make it very far past level 15 myself, but I won 9 games out of 9 with Goliath, it does depend on the player playing them, versus skill level.

But you still have to admit that new players coming into the game aren’t the ones who completely screwed over Goliath’s win ratio.


#6

Hopefully their’s a reason for this


#7

As you point out yourself, your math is wrong as it assumes the same number of games were played which each monster.

Here is a post from Macman giving us stats during he beta. (granted it’s only one day, and not global, but it does gives a more precise picture)

That day, Goliath had a 45.8% win rate for a 57% pick rate. That far from the 22.4% you give us. As Goliath is the goto monster for beginners, I’d say the balance looks pretty fine to me.


#8

this right here is that discrepancy.

Once you take all player levels 15 or higher its a lot more balanced.

Setting parameters is important. also over time things will balance themselves due to the nature of the game


#9

Pretty sure the disparity between Goliaths wins was due to the ability for people to pick a new monster. Instead of the higher level people moving between just kraken and Goliath they could now choose wraith which meant some would rarely go back to using him.


#10

I’d say that @Ender_74 is the closest to why the numbers look that bad. The data showed that Wraith won 70% of the matches she was in, then Kraken and Goliath were right about 50%. However, Wraith was the last monster that got unlocked by people and wasn’t even in the PS4 test. therefore, for sh*ts and giggles, lets say Goliath and Wraith played a total of 100 matches played, but 90 were goliath games and 10 were wraith. Lets say that Wraith won 80% of her matches, so she won 8 and lost 2. So if that was the case, Goliath would’ve had to have won 42 games, giving him a 46.6% win loss ratio, but again, the win loss of the monsters was still 50% even though Wraith had such a large ratio, she only had a few matches so her ratio doesn’t affect the overall win loss as much.


#11

You forgot to correct for the # of wraith matches which would have been a lot lower than goliath. Goliath was the first monster unlocked so it would have had new players and more players some of who didn’t know what they were doing. The only people playing wraith were preorders also a lot of people stopped playing it after they realized it was op.


#12

You’re making a lot of oversights. This would be correct if:

a) Each Monster was played an equal amount.
b) All players were equal in skill.

Half the Goliath players are noobs. So Goliath is fine. Kraken is fine. Wraith is fine now. Everything is fine. Fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine.


#13

Goliath won 48% of games so he’s fine I don’t know where your getting your numbers and math from


#14

Fine! FINE FINE FINE FINE FINE. Fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine fine.


#15

Everything is fine now im told.


#16


#17

Is :daisy: fine?


#18

I’m sorry, I was bitter and failed to truly be constructive.


#19