Alright, so let’s get started on what information we have.
There were 2 monsters in the Alpha.
Kraken: 70% win ratio
Goliath: ??% win ratio
That was the alpha though, so it isn’t that important, let us get to the Beta results.
There were 3 monsters in the Beta
Wraith: 71.1% win ratio
Kraken: 52% win ratio
Goliath: ??% win ratio
Overall monster win ratio: 48.5%
Overall, these numbers look balanced… until you look at the missing information. We didn’t receive any data on the Goliath, however we can figure it out because we have all the other numbers.
71.1% + 52% + ??% = 48.5%
??% = 22.4%
Goliath won 22.4% of the time for the monsters to have a win ratio of 48.5%.
That means that Goliath lost an astounding 77.6% of all games played.
Since we figured out Goliath’s win ratio, we can pull out the overpowered monster from the equation.
The win ratio of not including Wraith:
52% + 22.4% = 37.2%
If the Wraith wasn’t released during the Beta, the monsters would have had a 37.2% chance of winning the game. Turtle Rock didn’t include win ratio of Goliath because it was really low, and they wanted the Beta to look balance. But when you realize that a monster was so strong, it greatly skewed the data into a balanced form, you can see that it is indeed not balanced. Two outliers don’t make a game balanced.
Acceptable ranges of victories to defeat is between 60% - 40%
Great ranges of victories to defeats is between 55.5% - 45.5%
Perfect ranges of victories to defeats is between 52% - 48%
With Wraith at a 71.1% win ratio, and Kraken at 52% win ratio, you know that Goliath had to have a terrible win to lose ratio to balance the win to loss ratio of the monsters to 48.5%
Also, you have to realize that this data is all weighted. My calculations are just on the numbers alone, and when you realize that Goliath had a lot more games played under him versus Wraith and Kraken, his percentage isn’t as low… but it is still a major problem.
If we say that Goliath was played 50% of the time (He is the only unlockable if you haven’t pre-ordered the game or unlocked the Kraken yet, meaning you have to play him), he would have lost a majority of the time anyways.
It could be possible that he was within the 40th percentile, but chances are he was likely below it, but not near the 22.4%. If I had the exact amount of games played under each monster, I can easily figure out what Goliath’s true win to loss ratio was, but I do know that he was exceptionally weak, and because of Wraith’s OVERPOWERED win ratio, you know that Goliath had a terrible win ratio.
What I am curious about is how they plan on buffing up Goliath to make him more viable, because he is nowhere near a perfect win ratio, let alone a great win ratio, but probably not even an acceptable range.
If Turtle Rock could tell us (Or just me) the win ratio of the Goliath, I can do better math and figure out patterns that affects the game, for the better or for the worse. Yes, it being Assymetrical gaming isn’t fair, but it has to be as balanced as possible, and from the data recovered from the beta, it isn’t quite there yet.